Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Revisiting Malthus’s Warning 

         Thomas Malthus, the notorious founder of Malthusian thought which focuses on the inevitable collapse of the human population through starvation as a result of overreaching Earth’s carrying capacity. There is no doubt that the human population is growing exponentially, but the human race will never reach Malthus’ infamous Malthusian catastrophe. Mankind is extremely adaptable, and not just with regards to adapting to changing environments, but rather, through manipulating the very environment that is the threat. Malthus also spoke in regards to resources food on Earth, with no regard for our potential to extend our grasp outside of our own atmosphere. Most importantly, however, the human race will inevitably face the issue head on, by implementing a form of global birth control to curb our exponential growth.
            Each day, technologies increase through innovation to the point of pushing the intangible limits of morality and ethics. Our ability as a species to manipulate the very environment in which we live goes beyond what our internal morality ever considered. There is no question that the world will eventually need to address the issue of overpopulation and over-consumption, but one of the most involved methods is by changing the environment to favor our needs. If we face food scarcity, we will develop the technology to make food more abundant. When push comes to shove, necessity brings about rapid innovation. While this cannot be relied upon as a solution, we cannot assume that the current trend will continue indefinitely.
            In regards to literally interpreting Malthusianism, every discussion focuses on our Earthly environment and tends to neglect the possibilities that lie beyond our planet. The carrying capacity of any environment relies only on what can be found directly within that environment, but humanity has reached beyond Earth, so it is not out of the question to believe that farming in space or exploiting resources found on other planets is beyond the realm of possibility. As the population expands, so will our attempts to reach out into space, and with some technological development, our chance to move beyond the limited carrying capacity that Earth has to offer.
            Finally, it is important to have plans that do not rely too heavily on our ability as a species to adapt or to develop new technologies. While Malthus himself said that mankind will, essentially, “find a way,” there is always the possibility that we will not. A collapse in the population is entirely possible, whether through starvation, or even disease. Because of this, it is highly likely that before the human population is completely maxed out, there will be international policies implemented to curb population growth. Whether through tangible birth control methods or through incentives to prevent people from giving birth, the population growth will be stopped before nature steps in. This has already been seen in post-industrial nations such as Germany where incentives to not have children are significant enough to have an impact. Germany is already seeing a decline in the population and it is likely that as developed nations move forward, their population trends will behave similarly.
            The ideas of Thomas Malthus at the time were somewhat revolutionary and they brought about sincere concern from the public. The fear of uncertainty and lacking the ability to bring about change was a legitimate cause for action. Fortunately, developing technologies, the expansion of our reach into space, and our ability as a species to adapt has lessened the threat of a Malthusian catastrophe. Mankind is extremely adaptable, and not just with regards to adapting to changing environments, but rather, through manipulating the very environment that is the threat. Malthus also spoke in regards to resources food on Earth, with no regard for our potential to extend our grasp outside of our own atmosphere. Most importantly, however, the human race will inevitably face the issue head on, by implementing a form of global birth control to curb our exponential growth. The exponential growth of the human population should not be ignored, but as Malthus himself said, “…extraordinary situations generally create minds adequate to grapple with the difficulties in which they are involved.”
            
            

4 comments:

  1. Michael,

    I like that you try to move away from inevitability here, this is a big problem for many Malthusian critics. Two questions.

    1) do you think it is people like Malthus that 'shock' us into developing technology and alleviating scarcity?

    2) Could it be argued that technology is also a major reason for future scarcities? Isn't climate change as result of the technologies that helped to solve Malthus' original dilemma?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think that shock value is effective, but it not a sustainable method for developing technology. It can certainly alleviate scarcity, but you need both the new technology AND alleviation to make an significant changes. The real test is whether or not the initial 'shock' provided by people like Malthus is enough to spark innovation, because it is very dangerous to rely on last minute development.

      I also certainly think that one could argue the fault of new technology for our climate change problems. While I may not have a definitive answer for this, I believe that future scarcities are going to persist, regardless of technology, but the severity of those scarcities will diminish.

      Delete
  2. I don't know if creating incentives for people to not have children is the best idea. Birth rates in developed countries are hovering around replacement, and in nations like Japan the birth rate is significantly lower than replacement. Japan will face long term problems with a aging population and less people to take care of them. If this happened in the entire developed world, their could be a very different problem facing humanity.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I agree with Noah that limiting the amount of children people can have may not be the best solution. Do you think that the technology created to make food available in places where food is scarce is needed now or it this something you believe is only needed in the future, when the earth would have potentially met its capacity? Could it help to combat the hunger that millions of people across the world are facing today?

    ReplyDelete