Revisiting Malthus’s Warning
Thomas Malthus, the
notorious founder of Malthusian thought which focuses on the inevitable
collapse of the human population through starvation as a result of overreaching
Earth’s carrying capacity. There is no doubt that the human population is
growing exponentially, but the human race will never reach Malthus’ infamous
Malthusian catastrophe. Mankind is extremely adaptable, and not just with
regards to adapting to changing environments, but rather, through manipulating
the very environment that is the threat. Malthus also spoke in regards to
resources food on Earth, with no regard for our potential to extend our grasp outside
of our own atmosphere. Most importantly, however, the human race will
inevitably face the issue head on, by implementing a form of global birth
control to curb our exponential growth.
Each day, technologies increase through innovation to the
point of pushing the intangible limits of morality and ethics. Our ability as a
species to manipulate the very environment in which we live goes beyond what our
internal morality ever considered. There is no question that the world will
eventually need to address the issue of overpopulation and over-consumption, but
one of the most involved methods is by changing the environment to favor our
needs. If we face food scarcity, we will develop the technology to make food
more abundant. When push comes to shove, necessity brings about rapid innovation.
While this cannot be relied upon as a solution, we cannot assume that the
current trend will continue indefinitely.
In regards to literally interpreting Malthusianism, every
discussion focuses on our Earthly environment and tends to neglect the
possibilities that lie beyond our planet. The carrying capacity of any
environment relies only on what can be found directly within that environment,
but humanity has reached beyond Earth, so it is not out of the question to
believe that farming in space or exploiting resources found on other planets is
beyond the realm of possibility. As the population expands, so will our
attempts to reach out into space, and with some technological development, our
chance to move beyond the limited carrying capacity that Earth has to offer.
Finally, it is important to have plans that do not rely
too heavily on our ability as a species to adapt or to develop new
technologies. While Malthus himself said that mankind will, essentially, “find
a way,” there is always the possibility that we will not. A collapse in the
population is entirely possible, whether through starvation, or even disease. Because
of this, it is highly likely that before the human population is completely maxed
out, there will be international policies implemented to curb population
growth. Whether through tangible birth control methods or through incentives to
prevent people from giving birth, the population growth will be stopped before
nature steps in. This has already been seen in post-industrial nations such as Germany
where incentives to not have children
are significant enough to have an impact. Germany is already seeing a decline
in the population and it is likely that as developed nations move forward,
their population trends will behave similarly.
The ideas of Thomas Malthus at the time were somewhat revolutionary
and they brought about sincere concern from the public. The fear of uncertainty
and lacking the ability to bring about change was a legitimate cause for
action. Fortunately, developing technologies, the expansion of our reach into
space, and our ability as a species to adapt has lessened the threat of a
Malthusian catastrophe. Mankind is extremely adaptable, and not just with
regards to adapting to changing environments, but rather, through manipulating
the very environment that is the threat. Malthus also spoke in regards to
resources food on Earth, with no regard for our potential to extend our grasp
outside of our own atmosphere. Most importantly, however, the human race will
inevitably face the issue head on, by implementing a form of global birth
control to curb our exponential growth. The exponential growth of the human
population should not be ignored, but as Malthus himself said, “…extraordinary
situations generally create minds adequate to grapple with the difficulties in
which they are involved.”
Michael,
ReplyDeleteI like that you try to move away from inevitability here, this is a big problem for many Malthusian critics. Two questions.
1) do you think it is people like Malthus that 'shock' us into developing technology and alleviating scarcity?
2) Could it be argued that technology is also a major reason for future scarcities? Isn't climate change as result of the technologies that helped to solve Malthus' original dilemma?
I think that shock value is effective, but it not a sustainable method for developing technology. It can certainly alleviate scarcity, but you need both the new technology AND alleviation to make an significant changes. The real test is whether or not the initial 'shock' provided by people like Malthus is enough to spark innovation, because it is very dangerous to rely on last minute development.
DeleteI also certainly think that one could argue the fault of new technology for our climate change problems. While I may not have a definitive answer for this, I believe that future scarcities are going to persist, regardless of technology, but the severity of those scarcities will diminish.
I don't know if creating incentives for people to not have children is the best idea. Birth rates in developed countries are hovering around replacement, and in nations like Japan the birth rate is significantly lower than replacement. Japan will face long term problems with a aging population and less people to take care of them. If this happened in the entire developed world, their could be a very different problem facing humanity.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Noah that limiting the amount of children people can have may not be the best solution. Do you think that the technology created to make food available in places where food is scarce is needed now or it this something you believe is only needed in the future, when the earth would have potentially met its capacity? Could it help to combat the hunger that millions of people across the world are facing today?
ReplyDelete