Environmental Scarcity DOES NOT Directly Cause Conflict

I tend to get advice from the older wiser folks in my life, especially when it comes to making huge decisions. My godmother is one of those people. A couple days ago we were speaking, and without me asking she began to preach to me what she thinks I should do after graduation. I plan to graduate this May and anxiously look forward to the day. However, as an international student, there are several questions that make this process even more nerve wrecking. I have to decide on what I want to do after graduation, as every student does. This case is a matter of whether or not I should immediately move back to Jamaica after graduation or continue with graduate school or working in the United States. What my godmother told me was “Shervaughnnie, don’t come back here. Money is scarce. There isn’t any here to pay you. That’s why the crime rate is going up. People are getting poorer. If anything, you should consider moving to Japan, like a lot of college graduates in Jamaica are doing.” At first I was shocked at what she said because it seemed a little ignorant to me, but then I really thought about it. One of the connections I made from this conversation is related to Homer Dixon’s idea of the relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict. This post will evaluate whether or not scarcity is the cause of conflict in Jamaica.

In 1655, the British seized control over Jamaica. Shortly after, they established plantations that produced sugar, cocoa and coffee. In 1962, when the country gained independence from the British, it was still widely covered in agricultural land. This land was used to make products that the country derived a large part of its income from. Today the culture of agricultural production very different and almost extinct.  Now most of the country’s GDP is comes from services, a lot of which is driven by the tourism sector. According to the World Factbook, the downturn of the tourism market has negatively impacted the country’s economy. The debt-to-GDP ratio is currently at 140%, which continues to grow today. The worsening economy is creating a scarcity of jobs, which people need to get money in order to get the things they need to survive.

In my first blog post, I made reference to an author named Wangari Maathai, who explain how the infrastructure development around natural resources leads to the depletion of those sources. I find this to be true in Jamaica. The development of infrastructure across the country lead to the depletion of important rivers. Now that they are gone the people’s way of life has been completely changed to one that requires working in service sectors. For a country to be economically successful, it has to use the resources that it has wisely towards its growth. Jamaica could have been better off if it had used its natural resources to its benefit instead of partaking in activities that would rid them of their riches.

Long story short, there was a time that Jamaica was thriving economically because it used the natural resources that it had to grow. When the government decided to do something different, by increasing infrastructure, these resources slowing dwindled away. Now, the the country has an unemployment rate of 16.3%, one of the highest in the world. Also, about 16.3% of the population lives under the poverty line. As a result of the situation, the country has had a growing issue of violence and one of the highest crime rates in the Caribbean. Homer Dixon would say that environmental scarcity led to conflict within Jamaica. However, I disagree with this argument after evaluating the state of the country. There are simply too many intermediate factors that play a part in the creation of conflict for one to conclude that environmental scarcity is the direct cause. Instead the argument could read that environmental scarcity is one of the underlying causes of conflict. It could lead to competition over the little resources there are, which could then foster violence. Also, whether or not there is violence is highly dependent on the nature of the community. In a country where the government is well structured it may be less likely for conflict to occur as a result of scarcity.